TheAmericanvicepresidency,asthesayinggoes,“isnotworthabucketofwarmspit.“Yetvicepresidentialcandidates,manypeoplebelieve,canmakeallthedifferenceinwinning--orlosing--apresidentialelection.Isthattrue,though?DidSarahPalin,forexample,sinkJohnMcCain’scampaignin2008?DidJoeBidenhelpBarackObamawin?Dorunningmatesactuallymatter?Inthefirstbooktoputthisquestiontoarigoroustest,ChristopherJ.DevineandKyleC.Kopkodrawuponanunprecedentedrangeofempiricaldatatorevealhow,andhowmuch,runningmatesinfluencevotinginpresidentialelections.BuildingontheirpreviousworkinTheVPAdvantageandevidencefromover200statisticalmodelsspanningthe1952to2016presidentialelections,theauthorsanalyzethreepathwaysbywhichrunningmatesmightinfluencevotechoice.First,ofcourse,theytestfordirecteffects,orwhetherevaluationsoftherunningmateinfluencevotechoiceamongvotersingeneral.Next,theytestfortargetedeffects--if,thatis,runningmateswinvotesamongkeysubsetsofvoterswhosharetheirgender,religion,ideology,orgeographicidentity.Finally,theauthorsexamineindirecteffects--thatis,whetherrunningmatesshapeperceptionsofthepresidentialcandidatewhoselectedthem,whichinturninfluencevotechoice.Here,inthislastcategory,iswhereweseerunningmatesmostclearlyinfluencingpresidentialvoting--especiallywhenitcomestotheirqualificationsforholdingofficeandtakingoveraspresident,ifnecessary.Pickingarunningmatefromakeyvotingblocprobablywon’tmakeadifference,theauthorsconclude.Butpickinganexperienced,well-qualifiedrunningmatewillmakethepresidentialcandidatelookbettertovoters--andwinsomevotes.Withitswealthofdataandexpertanalysis,thisfinelycraftedstudy,themostcomprehensivetodate,finallyprovidesclearanswerstooneofthemostenduringquestionsinpresidentialpolitics:cantherunningmatemakeadifferenceinthiselection?
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